India's Q4 GDP grows at 7.7%, touches 6.7% for entire 2017-18

The Singapore Strait is one of the world's busiest commercial shipping routes and vital to the city-state's economyMore

The Singapore Strait is one of the world's busiest commercial shipping routes and vital to the city-state's economyMore

Moody's Investors Service, a credit rating firm on Wednesday estimated a 7.3 per cent growth in Indian Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the year 2018, thereby cutting it down from a previously projected 7.5 per cent. "Rapid growth in agriculture (4.5 per cent), manufacturing (9.1 per cent) and construction (11.5 per cent) contributed to the overall growth", the Central Statistics Office (CSO) said in its national accounts data released on Thursday.

The 7.7 per cent growth rate for this quarter is also the best since demonetisation and GST, considering that the figure is the highest among all four quarters.

India shot past China's 6.8 per cent growth for the January-March quarter. He emphasized that this is the development under leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Union Minister Arun Jaitley. The strong growth was largely a combination of three factors - a pickup in manufacturing, construction and agriculture. However, the quarterly growth showed significant improvement over the previous quarters. His government launched a nationwide goods and services tax (GST) but its introduction was botched, almost scuttling India's growth prospects in the near term. India's growth performance in the third quarter and fourth quarter implies that these shocks have worn off considerably, stated ANZ. "So we at this moment feel that we should retain (the growth estimate)", he said. The sharp uptick in the construction GVA growth in Q4 FY2018 benefited from the trend in its inputs, such as cement and steel consumption, and activity in the infrastructure sector (including affordable housing), even as real estate and industrial capex is yet to pick up and consumer sentiment is yet to recover appreciably. In terms of annual growth, GVA was at 6.5 percent.

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India's recovery could be threatened by higher global crude oil prices, which this month hit $80 a barrel, their highest since 2014. Higher cost of financing is also likely to slow investment and consumption spending across government, households and firms, said Abhishek Gupta, of Bloomberg Economics. "The banking sector remains in a fragile state, and such problems have the potential to derail the ongoing growth recovery".

Experts believe that GDP growth in 2018-19 could get a boost from prospects of good monsoon which will further boost the agriculutural produce and farm output. India meets 80 per cent of its oil needs from imports. Some headwinds do remain from the perspective of rising crude oil prices, and unwinding of global easy monetary policy & rising interest rates.

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